Possibility of future tsunamis - some could be

caused by the oil and gas industry??

Here are some facts and ideas and thining

and informations, which I assimilated to

own questions concerning the possible

future danger in the ocean area

Now I have new scientific informations and ideas,

which could be of interest and reality for oil

and gas drilling companies and other. It only

depends of the places where a company is

working, if it is there of interest or not - and of

the changes in the water temperature and

chemistry, which could at some places on the

word make a changing in the ability of

pecial layers - it is the potential of collapse

tsunamis which are not only caused be big rocks

which are dropping into the sea, but more frequently

it is really a danger of lateral landslides

which has its moving rock formation beneath the

sea level - widespread on the continentals

shelf, more than on land. Here You can read

about it :

"Cumbre Vieja Volcano-Potential collapse and

tsunami at

La Palma, Canary Islands". From Steven N. Ward

and Simon Day, Geophysical Research

Letters , Vol. 28, No. 17, pages 3397-3400,

September 1, 2001

The last sentence of this interesting article:

" Ironically, because of the more favourable

preservation conditions under water,

evidence of collapse tsunami may be more

widespread on the continental shelf than

on land. Still , the low-lying, tectonically stable,

non-glaciated margins of west Africa,

the south east United States, and north east Brazil,

together with the Bahamas

carbonate platform, should be particularly suitable

sites for geologists to search

for footprints of these occasional visitors."

With help of sonar data it is possible to find already

existing layers/slopes in the deeper rocks on

which a movement from big rock layers could occur

( and researches found already such a

slope at the Cumbre Vieja ) - during an earthquake,

seaquake, volcanic eruption, but also

without this - sometimes it is enough that the

conditions in this special layers are changed

a little bit after a long time of period and than this

is really an existing possibility of a nature

catastrophe which could destroy parts of the

company, who works with this,

if they should work in such dangerous

regions. May be, by making the horizontal drilling

and water injections, it is possible too by

some cases and conditions to cause such a

sub sea collapse tsunami, but may be by making

vertical drilling too.

So, what could one do - for his company or

living/working area?

Look on the map and speak the geology scientist

if some of Your work areas could be in such

dangerous regions. Try to gather and collect all data

from this regions- sonar, seismic,

magnetic, geodetic, Xenolithe laboratory data, uplifts,

temperature, changing in the chemistry,

and so on - remote data all which are possible

Analyze the data about the possibility of such

flank instabilitiesand movement of rocks on slopes

Think about the possibility that f.e.

a horizontal drilling and water injections and other

drilling and working in this areas could

change something in the nature which could be the

last drop which could cause this

collapse tsunami - and than be really carefully!

Possible problems by drilling in the continental

shelf which could cause a change in the

conditions for nature catastrophes:

There exist in the oil and gas industry a new

developed technique- horizontal drilling? there exist

already much experiences and knowledge about

vertical drilling, but because this system is new,

there could be the possibility that things

happens because of it is horizontal - and perhaps

nobody had thought about this possibility.

Do anyone know the resonance frequency of the

pipes/tubes in the horizontal drilling?

Does there exist the possibility of achieving this

dangerous resonancefrequency by

seismic waves from far away sea quakes?

Or from military submarine frequencies?

( the american military is for example

communicating with very low frequencies with

their submarines).

Does this is perhaps normally not a problem,

but in special areas where a company is

working or under beneath special environmental

conditions ( if special abilities from the

water and rocks are changed andthe waves

could get more power f.e.).Does this could be only

a problem by horizontal drilling and

not verticaldrilling, because the rock layers in

which the drilling is working has over many

miles the same abilities,

but in vertical drilling the pipes are running

through different kind of rocks with different abilities?

Could this cause an electrical charge field or

magnetic field more than at a vertical drilling?

And if Yes, what could this cause in the environment?

Do anyone know if there could be in some areas

where such a company is working

the possibility that the CCD

(Carbonat Compensation Depth)

is not as depth as normally

and in earlier times and Your pipes are already

sometimes beneath this CCD

(Usually the CCD is in approximate 4000 km

and there exist any more chalk or the chalk

starts to go in solution - but if there could

come due to the climatic change a change in

deeper streams which are more warm and

more acid ?Perhaps only sometimes in some

places there could occur this??)

And if Yes- what could this

cause of importance for Your

drilling there - if an instability of the rock

layers and a changed chemical environment has

impact on miles of pipes and the pipes on the

rock layers? No I only will show You newest

research results concerning

methane and methane ice in the Internet from

the experts in Germany with only some

sentences from it:

  http://www.rcom.marum.de/

Seismischer_Nachweis.html

( on German You can read at last sentences,

that there are probably very more methane

than the seismic staff is able to detect on the

sea floors in thewhole word)  

http://www.rcom.marum.de/Projekt_E2.html

( here You can read only in English, that the

dynamic of episodic fluid expulsion

are still poorly understood)

Therefore it is a fact, that the scientist do

not have normally enough knowledge about

the deeper rocklayers where the oil and gas

companies are working, but they have already the

Here two videos with Simon Day about the Megatsunami:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fzm49fUSCPk

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z06bFOLaNI0

 

Here further more scientific facts from an internet page about the

tsunami risk concerning offshore Oil structures –

You find the article here:

 

http://www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/tsunami-risks/html/HSE2OffOil.htm

 

TSUNAMI RISK IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC

Offshore Oil Structures and Tsunami Hazard

There is an extremely serious risk of damage to offshore oil structures

due to extreme variation in the level of the ocean surface during the

period of time immediately prior to the propagation of the first tsunami

wave. It is well-known, e.g. Harbitz (1991) that sea floor disturbance,

whether it be from a seabed fault or from an underwater slide, is

accompanied by strong initial vertical water motion. In general, when a

fault or an underwater slide takes place, water moves into the area

from which seafloor material has been displaced. Thus in the case of

the Second Storegga Slide, the initial water motion accompanying the

landslide is into the area defined by the landslide scarp slope. In any

tsunami these movements of water in the open ocean are

accompanied by a draw-down of water at the coast. In general terms,

the volume of ocean water moved into and over the area of seabed

disturbance is approximately equal to the volume of water displaced

seaward in response to lowering of the ocean surface and the draw-

down of water at the coast.

Thus, when a tsunami takes place the primary effect is a movement of

tremendous volumes of water into the ocean area located above the

sea floor disturbance. Ocean water tends to pile-up in an ocean area

circa several tens of square km and the level of the ocean surface in

this area can increase its elevation dramatically. This accumulation of

surplus water over a restricted ocean area is followed by collapse and

it is the collapse of this water column that constitutes the primary

mechanism by which tsunami waves are propagated out from a point

source in the ocean (figure 3).

It should be noted from this discussion that the precise altitude above

the ocean surface to which water may rise is dependent upon the rate

and dimensions of seabed displacement. Thus, a landslide that is

generated on the seabed that moves relatively slowly will produce

smaller volumes of surplus water over the area of sea disturbance as

compared with an extremely rapid event. In the case of the Second

Storegga Slide we do not know how fast the landslide moved. The only

way that crude attempts can be made to reconstruct the former

landslide velocity is by comparing the geological observations of runup

at the coast with those produced by a mathematical model. Harbitz

(1991) tuned the landslide model to correspond with geological

estimates of runup at the coastline and was able to estimate a likely

average landslide velocity of 35 ms-1 but it was always an impossible

task to estimate the speed of initial slope failure in the area now

defined by the scarp slope. These two parameters, once defined,

produce the dimensions of the tsunami waves, the rate of slope failure

the first factor that comes in to play when the tsunami is initially

generated, but the landslide velocity also being important since it

defines the rate at which the landslide is moving at a time when the

tsunami waves begin to be propagated outwards from the area of initial

ocean disturbance.

It is virtually impossible to estimate the rise in the water level in the

area of the ocean that is subject to the initial accumulation of water.

We choose a value of +100m to be included in this report, but this

value could be significantly higher or lower dependent upon the

processes described above. We therefore identify an area of ocean

which is at greatest risk from water level changes and it should be

noted that water level changes described for this area are likely to be

several times higher than the water level changes associated with

propagation of individual tsunami waves. The question therefore in

terms of safety is to identify the area of ocean most likely to be subject

to such extreme water level changes should a future disaster occur.

Although this is extremely difficult to accomplish with any degree of

precision, it is logical to conclude that the possible areas of extreme

water disturbance are likely to occur above any future scarp slope area

on the seabed where a slide takes place. Since the greatest

accumulations of soft sediments occur on the continental slope west of

Norway, we identify this area (as opposed to the continental shelf or

the deepest (abyssal) areas of the ocean floor as the area in which oil

installations are at greatest risk. Since the upper level of the scarp

slope associated with the Storegga Slides occurs at circa 500m water

depth, we identify a zone of the Norwegian Sea beyond the continental

shelf at a water depth range between circa 500-750m as the area at

greatest risk.

It is difficult to imagine what the effects of such extreme water level

changes would be at an offshore oil installation. The first effect

following the triggering of an underwater slide in the future would be a

draw-down of the ocean surface surrounding a central area into which

water would move. We envisage that in the first few minutes of such an

event the water levels would increase by several tens of metres thus

exerting immense strains on the structures as well as causing their

temporary submergence and possible collapse.

Once a tsunami has been generated the propagation of the tsunami

wave train is most responsive to changes in water depth. For the most

part tsunamis are largely invisible or can scarcely be detected in the

open ocean due to the exceptionally long wave lengths of the wave

train (many tens and sometimes hundreds of km) and long-wave

periods (typically 10-20 minutes). In the open ocean the passage of a

tsunami wave train may scarcely be noticed from a ship since the long

wave length is also associated with an extremely low wave amplitude.

However the velocity of the propagated waves is exceptionally high and

is calculated as:

Sorry - here was in earlier time a picture with a mathematic formula.

Now I tried without success to get it back - the page which I had here

in copy is not any longer available in the Internet - it was withdrawn -

perhaps the people who made this article in the webportal about the

offshore industry got problems wiht it!!??

Now I continue with the copy of the articel:

Where g = gravitational acceleration and d = water depth (Figure 3)

Thus a tsunami generated at a water depth of 4,000m is associated

with a propagation velocity of 450km/hr. Whereas submarine motion

(e.g. a fault or a landslide) that takes place in a water depth of 400m

will generate tsunami waves with velocities in the order of 63m/sec

(Figure 3).

Due to the relative long wave length of tsunami waves, the deformation

of the water column begins to take place as soon as the seabed

occurs within a water depth that corresponds to a value <½ the wave

length. In the case of the North Atlantic most tsunami waves will begin

to cause water deformation across the continental shelf. As the waves

approach shallower waters the deformation increases and results in the

construction of a breaking wave. The breaking wave may be many tens

of kilometres in length and as it approaches the coastline it slows

down. Within several hundred metres of the coastline the breaking

wave may be several metres in height and the height of the wave

increases as it travels across shallower water depths. However, the

wave is also slowing down as this process takes place so that when a

tsunami wave approaches the coastal edge it may only be travelling at

velocities in the order of 20-30m/sec. The breaking wave however

during this time has increased in its amplitude and the height of the

breaking wave will vary largely depending on the nature on the original

source of the tsunami.

Therefore, it is to be expected with the exception of the area of sea

surface located directly over a submarine sediment failure, the

remainder of the ocean area will largely be unaffected by the passage

of tsunami waves until the waves reach shallow water. Since most oil

installations are located in relatively deep water, it is extremely unlikely

that the height of a propagated tsunami wave would cause any

damage. This research has not investigated the effects of tsunami on

moored systems.